Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Thursday session with most contracts 3 to 4 3/4 cents higher, with support coming from seeming progress on the Trade War front. The weekly update to the EIA report showed production last week was down 33,000 barrels per day and back below 1 million bpd to 996,000. Even with the lower production, ethanol stocks were up 447,000 barrels to 23.913 million barrels. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum showed forecast 2019 corn acreage at 92 million acres, which would be 2.9 million larger than last year. Analysts are expecting Friday’s Export Sales report to show 4-7 MMT in old crop sales and 50,000-250,000 MT in new crop bookings in the weeks of Jan 10-Feb 14.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.75 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.84 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.92 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.96 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures saw 5 to 8 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday. That is following reports that several Memorandum of Understandings are being developed between the US and China. Meal futures were up 70 cents/ton in the nearby contract, with soy oil leading the way to the upside, up 53 points. At the Ag Outlook Forum, USDA released an 85 million acre US soybean planting forecast. That would be down 4.2 million acres from last year if realized. Trade estimates for tomorrows USDA Export Sales report range from 6-9 MMT in old crop sales for the week of 1/10-2/14, with 100,000-600,000 MT for new crop. The 18/19 bookings would imply a 1-1.5 MMT weekly average. The average trade estimate ahead of Friday’s Fats & Oils report is for 182.5 mbu of soybeans crushed in December. The USDA Ag Attach in Brazil updated their soybean production estimate to 115.5 MMT, 1.5 MMT below the official USDA number from February 8.

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.11, up 8 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.24 1/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.37 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.46, up 6 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal closed at $305.90, up $0.70,

Mar 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.49, up $0.53

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures posted 4 to 9 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday after four sessions of sharp losses, with MPLS the strongest. USDA forecasts 2019 wheat acreage at 47 MMT in their annual Ag Outlook Forum, down 800,000 acres from last year. Friday’s Export Sales report is projected to show 2-3 MMT in all wheat sales for the weeks of 1/10-2/14. That implies a 333,000-500,000 MT per week in sales on average. Taiwan is seeking 110,000 MT of US wheat in a tender that is due next Tuesday. The IGC trimmed their world wheat ending stocks for 18/19 by 1 to 262 MMT, mainly on lower production.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.86 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.55 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.57 3/4, up 9 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures closed the Thursday session with the front months steady to 70 cents lower and deferred contracts higher. Feeder cattle futures were also mixed with nearby contracts 12.5 to 65 cents lower and back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up a penny on February 20 at $141.11. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday afternoon, widening Ch/Se spread at $6.66. Choice boxes were up $1.58 at $218.07 with Select 9 cents lower at $211.41. USDA estimated the WTD FI cattle slaughter at 436,000 head through Thursday. That was down 23,000 head from last week and 8,000 lower than the same week last year. The delayed January Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday, with Jan on feed estimated 2.2% larger yr/yr. Cash bids were shown around $123 and $198-201 so far today. Asks are around $128 and $205-207.

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $127.625, down $0.700,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $128.600, down $0.600,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $119.250, down $0.075,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.225, down $0.650

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.525, down $0.550

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.875, down $0.125

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were just shy of posting limit gains on Thursday, with most front months $2.60 to $2.975 higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 30 cents from the previous day @ $54.13 on February 19. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.06 on Thursday afternoon at an average weighted price of $61.23. The belly primal was up $9.56. The national base cash hog carcass value was down $1.53 in the PM report, with a weighted average of $46.37. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 1.890 million head through Thursday. That was up 59,000 head from the previous week and 91,000 above the same week last year.

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $55.950, up $2.975,

May 19 Hogs closed at $65.800, up $2.775

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $75.675, up $2.925

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures settled the Thursday session with most nearby contracts 109 to 191 points higher. Progress is reportedly being made between the US and China this week, with reports showing the two countries developing several Memorandum of Understandings. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points on February 20 to 80.30 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price was updated to 61.80 cents/ lb on Thursday, down 47 points from the previous week. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum showed a forecast of 14.3 million acres for 2019 all cotton acres. The Cotton On Call report from CFTC for the week of February 1 showed unfixed call sales at 16,628 contracts, with unfixed call purchased at 14,928 contracts.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 72.190, up 191 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 74.010, up 185 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 74.990, up 165 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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Phone: 402-697-3623
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