AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures are fractionally mixed at midday; seeing a little pressure from rapid harvest progress, a mostly dry forecast, and probably a little profit taking ahead of the weekend. Dec16 corn had a 1.4% gain so far on the week as of the Thursday close. Weekly USDA export sales were down 21% week/week. IGC hiked projected 2016/17 world corn production by 8 MMT from previous estimates, with half of that coming in the U.S. World corn ending stocks are seen at 221 MMT, up 6% from last year.
Soybean futures are mostly a couple cents lower at midday. Most meal contracts are giving back at least $3 today, as the Dec16 contract was up more than $20 on the week through the Thursday close. Dec16 bean meal is taking back a decent sized chunk of the losses incurred over the last few days. The IGC is projecting that 2016/17 world soybean production will rise to 332 MMT, up 6% from the previous year.
Wheat futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents lower at midday. Through Thursday's close, the Dec contract for CBT wheat was unchanged on the week, with Dec KC down 4.5 cents and Dec MGE 3.5 cents lower. Weekly export sales exceeded the expected range and old crop sales were up 26% week/week. US export commitments are now 61% of the full year forecast. The 5 year average for this date is 62%. The IGC raised its forecast for global 2016/17 wheat production by 1 MMT to 748 MMT. USDA was at 744.44 MT on October 12. A two-year drought in parts of India has hurt total production, and the USDA office expects India's imports to grow by 3 MMT; significantly more than their typical annual imports of about 116,000 MT.
Live cattle futures are trading mostly 7.5 to 52.5 cents higher. Feeders are mixed from 12.5 cents lower to 2.5 cents higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up 90 cents to $120.90. Wholesale prices reported this morning averaged $183.11 for choice, and 169.89 for select, up $1.57 and $1.08 respectively. Cash cattle trade picked up this morning in TX, KS and NE mostly at $105, and dressed sales were reported at $164. October cattle futures expire on October 31.
Lean hog futures are higher again today with some contracts up more than $1 following triple digit gains in most contracts on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/25 is up 3 cents to $51.70. The average pork carcass cutout value reported by USDA this morning is at $74.00, up 63 cents. The USDA national base price was $44.98, down 57 cents. Week to date FI slaughter is estimated at 1.715 million head. That would be 48,000 below last week at this time, but only 10,000 head behind a year ago. A major eastern packer is taking down time to more fully recover from Hurricane Matthew.
Cotton futures are trading higher at midday with the Dec16 and March17 contracts both up more than 100 points, getting a little help from a lower US Dollar Index. The Dec16 contract was already up about 1% on the week as it began the Friday session. USDA export sales for upland cotton were down 62% week/week, but export shipments were only down 1% vs. last week. Unshipped sales on the books are 64% larger than last year at this time. The AWP for this coming week is 59.25, down from 60.66 the previous week. The Cotlook A Index is at 78.65 for 10/27.