AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures were within a half cent of unchanged on the day today, and just a quarter cent higher for the week. Informa published its latest 2015/16 corn production estimate expecting 13.561 bbu (USDA: 13.585 bbu), with an average yield of 168.4 bu/ac (USDA: 167.5 bu/ac). They are citing cuts in acreage. FC Stone raised its corn yield estimate by 1.1 bu/ac to 167 bu/acre. Weekly data from the CFTC issued this afternoon says managed money accounts added a net 788 contracts to their net long position during the week ending Tuesday Sept 29. The agriculture ministry in Ukraine stated that Ukrainian corn exports totaled 1.4 MMT (55 millino bushels) during the last three months. DTN reports the national average cash corn price at $3.54 1/4.
Soybean futures lost 2 1/2 to 3 cents today and November was down 15 cents on the week. October soybean meal was down $10.20 from a week earlier, or -3.42%. Consultant Informa estimates an average 2015/16 bean yield of 47.2 bu/ac. FC Stone put the yield at 46.9 bu/ac, up from its previous estimate of 45.4 bu/ac. Stats Canada updated its Canadian canola crop production estimate to 14.3 MMT, up from their previous estimate of 13.4 MMT but down 12.9% from last year. They are slightly less optimistic about Canadian soybean production than USDA was in September. The weekly COT report showed managed money accounts were a net 15,753 contracts less short than they were a week earlier. As of the Tuesday close their net short position was -30,497 contracts.
Wheat futures settled mostly 5 to 7 cents lower on the day but the front months eked out gains for the week: HRW futures were just a quarter cent higher, but SRW futures were up more than a nickel, and HRS gained 4.5 cents. The USD was down about 350 points from last Friday. Stats Canada updated wheat production estimates this morning, putting all wheat production about 1 MMT higher than average trade guesses at 26.06 MMT (USDA: 25.00 MMT). Of that, 19.05 MMT is spring wheat, while 4.74 MMT is expected to be durum; both more than 20% smaller than the 2014 production. Ukrainian wheat exports over the last three months added up to 5.5 MMT, according to its Ag ministry. CFTC says that managed money was net 8,717 contracts less short in SRW wheat and net 1,211 contracts less short in HRW wheat compared to a week earlier as of the Tuesday close.
Live cattle futures lost $10.62 in the October contract this week, an 8.63% drop even after taking back $1.65 during Friday trade. October feeders were up $2.42 on Friday, but lost more than $5, or about 2.84% from a week earlier. Official livestock slaughter data totaled 578,081 head during the week ending 9/19, the largest amount reported for a single week since the week ending 1/24. This was of course the week following the shortened Labor Day week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 1 was down $1.04 to $187.89. Cash cattle trade reported live sales between $113 and $120 on Thursday. A few dressed sales took place at $190. The USDA reported wholesale beef prices were lower again today. Choice boxes were down $1.78 lower to $205.77, and select boxes averaged $1.85 lower than Thursday at $201.36. CFTC says that as of Tuesday afternoon, managed money(MM) accounts had shaved another 182 contracts off of their net long position from a week earlier.
Hog futures gained 65 cents to as much as $1.02 1/2 today and October was up about 2% for the week. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/30 was up 42 cents to $72.65. Hog slaughter weights were steady at 210 pounds during the week ending 9/19, up from the yearly low of 208 pounds, and 2 pounds lower than the same week in 2014. Friday weighted average carcass cutout prices came in 88 cents lower than Thursday at $85.53. Cash hog base prices in the WCB and IA/MN area were respectively 7 to 13 cents higher on the day. Week to date FI slaughter including Saturday estimates is 2.27 million head, off 6,ooo head from last week. Managed money accounts were shown adding a net 3,122 contracts to their net long position in lean hog futures and options during the week ending Sept. 29 according to the weekly COT report from the CFTC.
Cotton futures were mostly 33 to 46 cents lower on the session, and December was down 44 points, or 0.75% for the week. Weekly data from the CFTC showed managed money (MM) accounts adding a net 705 contracts to their net long position from a week earlier in the Commitment of Traders Report. As of Tuesday, MM accounts were net long 19,068 contracts. The monthly USDA Cotton Consumption report showed bale consumption in August increased to 1,983 bales, up from 1,679 in July, and 1,230 in June. Stocks as of August 27 was 4,526 RBs. The Cotlook A Index was off 35 points to 66.90. There were 44,757 certified bales in stock on October 1, with 88 decertified. USDA put the AWP for this week at 44.32, boosting the LDP/MLG to 7.68 cents per pound from 7.39 last week.