AgriCharts Market Commentary
Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here
Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.
Corn futures are trading mostly 3 to 5 cents higher, thanks to a 300 point retreat in the US Dollar this morning, and additional strength in soybean meal futures. Our Brugler500 Index showed the national corn condition score was unchanged from last week at 385. However Illinois, which produced nearly 15% of the 2015 crop, saw its condition rating decline by 6 points week over week to 379. The state's score is 18 points better than this week last year. The scores in Minnesota and Ohio each improved by 3 points to 398 and 376 respectively. From their state reserve auctions, China sold 440,664 MT of the 1.22 MMT offered. The Crop Estimates Committee in South Africa still sees local corn production only reaching 7.16 MMT in 2015/16, slightly below the average estimate produced by a Bloomberg survey of trade analysts.
Soybean futures are currently 15 to 19 1/4 cents higher on a lower USD and slight declines to the national soybean condition. Our Brugler500 Index had the national condition rating at 378, down 1 point from the previous week. The soybean condition score in Illinois was down 7 points week over week, to an updated score of 376, still good for 36 points ahead of last year at this time. Iowa saw its condition rating slip by 6 points to 385, which is actually down 6 points from this week last year. The two states combined for 28% of 2015 US soybean production. The season’s first blooming progress showed 9% of the crop has bloomed, up 2 points from average.
Wheat futures are mostly steady to 2 3/4 cents higher, although front month Jul16 SRW and HRW are down 1/2 cent and 2 cents respectively. According to yesterday's USDA Crop Progress report, the US winter wheat harvest as of Sunday night was 45% complete. The condition score was up 3 points from the previous Monday at 365 on our Brugler500 Index. Statewide scores improved by 6 points from the previous week in Kansas, and by 14 points in Illinois. Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, and South Dakota each experienced slight declines. The national spring wheat condition score dropped 7 points from last Monday to 376 on our Brugler500 Index. Minnesota (+3 points) was the only state of the 6 major producers to see a statewide improvement in its spring wheat condition. Montana and South Dakota experienced 14 and 17 point declines respectively. There was 2.5 MMT of wheat offered at Chinese state reserve auctions today, 22,070 MT of which was sold.
Live cattle futures are 40 cents to $1.075 higher. Feeders are currently up 12.5 to 95 cents, led by Aug16 feeders. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/24 was down $1.06 to $140.21. Cash cattle trade reported a few live sales of $116 on Monday, and dressed sales of $185. Last week, average live cash cattle sales were down $3.84 from the week before, and dressed sales were $5.86 lower. The morning USDA report showed the average price of choice boxed beef is down $2.46, and select boxes are just 6 cents lower. Retailers are done buying for the July 4 weekend except for clean up business. FI slaughter on Monday was estimated at 113,000 head, steady with both last Monday and the same Monday in 2015.
Lean hog futures 15 cents lower to 37.5 cents higher, with the weakness in front month Jul16 hogs. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/24 was up 20 cents from the previous average to $84.61. The weighted average carcass cutout value this morning is $1.14 higher. The pork butt and rib cutouts have increased in average price by $4.15/cwt and $6.67/cwt respectively. The national cash hog base price is down $1.37 this morning. Average prices are $1.94 lower in the IA/MN region, and down $2.91 in the WCB. Estimated Monday FI slaughter was 6,000 head larger than last Monday, and 1,000 head bigger than the same day a year ago.
Cotton futures are trading 88 to 122 points higher. The US dollar is weaker today, and crude oil is up 89 cents/barrel. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report on Monday afternoon showed 6% of the US cotton crop has set bolls, steady with the previous five year average. The national cotton condition rating was up 3 points from last Monday on our Brugler500 Index to 357. The condition score of 350 in Texas was up 5 points week over week, and is 23 points higher from the initial 2016 score. However, statewide conditions in Georgia were pegged at 369, down 5 points from the previous week, and 4 points below this season's initial score. Chinese state reserve auctions reported cotton sales of 21,700 MT on Tuesday. The Cotlook A Index was down 100 points to 74.55. ICE reported that there were 135,163 certified bales in storage warehouses on June 27, with no new certs and no decertified bales. There have been no deliveries thus far vs. July futures. Through Thursday, the USDA was the AWP at 55.48, up 108 points from last week. The LDP/MLG is once again zero.