AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures are currently 4 to 6 cents lower on “buy the rumor, sell the fact” action following the largest weekly export sales report of the year. This morning, the weekly USDA Export Sales report showed corn bookings of 2,564,800 MT during the week ending Nov 19. Sales of 2.036 MMT for 2015/16 and 528,500 MT for 2016/17 each set marketing year highs. Total commitments of 16.579 MMT through the first twelve weeks of the marketing year are 76.8% of the mark set at the same time in 2014. Weekly shipments increased by 36.7% week over week, and were the largest since the week ending October 8. The Chicago Board of Trade will close at 12 pm CST today.
Soybean futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower this morning, after closing 10 to 11 1/2 cents higher on Wednesday. The USDA reported in its weekly Export Sales report that 1.179 MMT of US beans were sold to foreign importers during the week ending November 19. Sales to China totaled only 751,661 MT, down 54% from the previous week, and the smallest weekly total since the week ending October 1. Weekly shipments of 1.913 MMT were the fewest since the week ending October 8. Soybean meal export sales were 247,800 MT, after reporting net sales reductions of 7,100 MT for the 2016/17 marketing year. Soy oil net bookings totaled 12,800 MT.
Wheat futures are 5 to 13 cents lower this morning, after trading a nickel lower in Dec15 CHI on Wednesday. During the week ending Nov19, 325,700 MT of wheat was sold to foreign purchasers per the USDA Export Sales report, down 55% from the week before. Of the total, 22,000 MT was for 2016/17 delivery, the largest weekly sales total for the next marketing year since the week ending September 17. Mexico and Japan combined accounted for nearly 42% of total sales. Agriculture officials in Iran do not expect the country to import high amounts of wheat next year due to boosted production from better than expected rainfall. The Egyptian supply minister states that Egypt was enough wheat reserves to last until April 23. The trade is skeptical.
Live cattle futures are currently trading 20 lower to 65 higher after closing with gains of 60 to 85 cents on Wednesday. Feeder futures are steady to 60 cents higher this morning, following gains of 10 to 30 cents on Wednesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 86 cents higher to $172.69. In its weekly Export Sales report, the USDA announced export sales of 8,500 MT of US beef through last Thursday 41% of which was sold to South Korea. Total sales declined by nearly 50% week over week, and recorded the smallest weekly total since the week ending August 13. Year to date commitments are 10.7% smaller than they were as of this week in 2014. The strong US dollar is an issue. The USDA reports higher wholesale beef prices this morning. Choice boxes are 89 cents higher to $204.98, and select boxes are up $1.91 to $195.67. Actual slaughter was 558,029 head during the week ending November 14, while dressed weights were steady at 846 pounds.
Hog futures are steady to $1.40 lower this morning, after settling from 15 cents lower to $1.575 higher on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/24 was 14 cents higher to $55.64. According to the USDA Export Sales report, 10,600 MT of US pork was booked on the export market during the week ending 11/19, including 1,400 MT of which was sold to China. This is a partial measure of US pork export business, focusing on muscle cuts. The USDA average carcass cutout price is 69 cents lower this morning, at $71.03. Ribs and bellies are each more than $3.00 cheaper. The national weighted average cash hog base price is 73 cents lower this morning. Actual slaughter during the week ending 11/14 totaled 2.393 million head, the largest since the week ending 12/1/12. Average dressed weights increased by a pound week over week to 214 pounds.
Cotton futures are currently trading 45 to 77 higher, following triple digit gains on Wednesday. The USDA reported export sales of 313,100 RB during the week ending Nov 19, including 7,500 RB of Pima. Upland sales of 305,600 RB were the largest since the week ending October 1, and increased by 53% from the week before. The Cotlook A Index was 125 points higher to 69.80. ICE reports that there were 63,958 certified bales in delivery warehouses on Nov 25, with 4,202 new certs and only 15 decertified bales. There were 1,460 bales awaiting review. There were 12 additional contracts put out by Dreyfus against December futures, with a Macquarie client again on the receiving end. USDA put the AWP for this week at 46.89 and dropped the LDP/MLG to 5.11, down .01 from the 5.12 last week.