AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures closed 1 to 2 cents higher on the day. We saw solid export sales for new crop in the weekly report yesterday, and this morning the USDA told us that Mexico bought just over 269TMT of corn, with more than 91% of it slated for delivery in 14/15. Some concerns are mounting in the areas of the Corn Belt that have not accumulated additional moisture in the past week or more. Fairly broad areas of the Corn Belt are below 100% of normal precip for July, but are drawing on subsoil moisture from June. The Allendale brokerage firm released a 174.1 bpa national average yield guess yesterday. If realized, that would be 5.9% above the previous record set in 2009, and a year over year improvement of more than 9.6%. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report this afternoon showed managed money decreasing their net long position in corn by 22,693 contracts as of July 22 giving them a net long position of 70,408.
Soybean futures closed 1 penny lower to 4 cents higher. The front month Aug 14 contract displayed the most strength and finished up nearly a nickel. The 1.2835 MMT of new crop bookings to China in the weekly export sales report yesterday morning must not have been bullish enough to spook the bears for more than a day. According to the USDA announcement this morning, another 360,000 MT was reported sold to China by private exporters. Mexico bought 134,700 MT of soybean meal for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year. As of the close on July 22, CFTC shows managed money selling 12,454 net contracts of soybeans, flipping them from a net long to a net short position of 18,543 contracts.
Wheat futures closed 1 to 10 cents higher on the day. The Sept 14 KCBT contract displayed the most strength and was up nearly a dime. The Spring Wheat Tour projected average yield of 48.6 bpa, an all time record. The 5 year average for the group is 44.7 bpa. They projected durum yield at 36.6 bpa. Australia is expecting current dry weather in the eastern part of the country to last another 60-90 days, affecting wheat and other crops. GULF CIF SRW bids slipped a nickel for July this morning, currently at +$.40 September. Trader talk regarding crop quality in France continues as rains hit the east and northern portions of the country. As of the close last Tuesday, managed money account sold 8,024 contracts in CBOT wheat for the week, giving them a net short position of 54,519 lots. They were still net long 13,407 contracts in KC.
Cattle futures settled $0.60 to $2.00 higher on the day. Feeders were $0.72 to $1.00 higher. The COF report was released after the close today. The average trade guess for July 1 On Feed was at 98.11% of year ago. USDA pegged the actual figure at 97.61%. Marketings were expected to be about 98%. The actual figure was reported at 98.24%. USDA estimated June placements at 93.81% vs. trade estimates above 96%. The CME Feeder index was $1.16 higher at $214.19. Wholesale beef prices are higher again today with Choice boxes up $1.82 at $257.38 and Select up $1.49 at $254.33. Cash cattle were SHARPLY higher this week, with some $165 trades reported on Friday. Week to date slaughter of 458,000 head is off 1,000 from last week, and down 5.5% from last year. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreasing their net long position in live cattle by 2,722 contracts last week bringing their overall net long position to 118,655 contracts
Lean hogs settled $0.65 lower to $0.60 higher. The average pork carcass cutout value was $0.48 higher at $131.79. Bellies snapped back $6.88 to close at $144.61. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.85 at $131.19. Estimated weekly slaughter (w/ Sat estimates) was reported at 1,862,000 head compared to 1,990,000 head as this time last year. The IA/MN area carcass base prices were reported $0.72 lower. The ECB was $1.10 lower, and the WCB was $0.54 lower. As of the close last Tuesday, managed money accounts reported a weekly decrease of 1,077 contracts in lean hog longs giving them a net long position of 54,871 contracts.
Cotton futures closed 95 points lower to 124 points higher. China cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange for January delivery were down 0.83%. Cash trading increased with business to business sales reported at 93 bales compared to 45 the previous day. Cert stocks dropped to 176,373 bales, with 6,539 decerts and one new cert. The Cotlook A Index is unchanged at 83.05. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money accounts decreasing their net long position in cotton by 4,006 contracts bringing their overall net long on July 22 to 3,618 contracts.