Editor's note: Any and all references to time frames longer than one trading day are for purposes of market context only, and not recommendations of any holding time frame. Daily rebalancing ETFs are not meant to be held unmonitored for long periods. If you don't have the resources, time or inclination to constantly monitor and manage your positions, leveraged and inverse ETFs are not for you.
The Federal Reserve has faced increasing calls from President Trump to cut interest rates. But there’s been some hesitation over at the central bank on the inflation* front due to tariffs. Even so, the economic data is moving in a direction that could support rate cuts at some point. This could lead to nice trading opportunities in long-term Treasuries.
Could a “Goldilocks” Scenario Play Out?
Despite the weak gross domestic product (GDP)* reading from the first quarter, some of the Fed’s forecasts for the second quarter actually show a strong print. We’ve continued to see inflation data come in soft, and the most recent PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation data was its lowest since March 2021.
The labor market has also started to show signs of weakening. Combined with soft inflation, this is opening the door for the Fed to resume its rate cuts. It’s been since December 2024 that they last cut rates. Right now, the market is expecting the next cut in September, but this could move up if the data keeps coming in soft.
Candlestick charts display the high and low (the stick) and the open and close price (the body) of a security for a specific period. If the body is filled, it means the close was lower than the open. If the body is empty, it means the close was higher than the open.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate. An investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost; current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. For the most recent month-end performance go to Direxion.com/etfs. For standardized performance, click here.
Geopolitical Risks and Inflation
So far, the tariff measures haven’t led to a meaningful rise in prices. As long as inflation remains contained, the Fed could proceed with rate cuts. But geopolitical risk, particularly in the Middle East, remains elevated and should be monitored closely.
If we see tensions escalate, it could lead to a surge in the price of crude oil, and inflation expectations could follow. Traders will want to keep a close watch on the next inflation report, which is set to be released on July 15. If it comes in hotter than expected, we could see a surge in bond yields.
Traders seeking to protect themselves from a return of inflation may find a trade with Direxion’s Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (Ticker: TMV), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the inverse performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.
Below is a daily chart of TMV as of June 5, 2025.
Source: TradingView.com
Candlestick charts display the high and low (the stick) and the open and close price (the body) of a security for a specific period. If the body is filled, it means the close was lower than the open. If the body is empty, it means the close was higher than the open.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate. An investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost; current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. For the most recent month-end performance go to Direxion.com/etfs. For standardized performance, click here.
An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.
The ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (IDCOT20TR) is a market value weighted index that includes publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than 20 years. Eligible securities must be fixed rate, denominated in U.S. dollars, and have $300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve. Securities excluded from the Index are inflation-linked securities, Treasury bills, cash management bills, any government agency debt issued with or without a government guarantee and zero-coupon issues that have been stripped from coupon-paying bonds. One cannot directly invest in an index.
Neither Rafferty nor the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares and the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (the “Financial Products”) is sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Interactive Data Pricing and Reference Data, LLC or its affiliates (“Vendor”). Vendor makes no representation or warranty regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally, in the Financial Products particularly, or the ability of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index to track general financial market performance. VENDOR MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE ICE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL VENDOR HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in a Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. A Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with the Fund’s concentrating its investments in a particular industry, sector, or geography which can increase volatility. The use of derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps are subject to market risks that may cause prices to fluctuate over time.
Leverage Risk – Each Fund obtains investment exposure in excess of its net assets by utilizing leverage and may lose more money in market conditions that are adverse to its investment objective than a fund that does not utilize leverage. A total loss may occur in a single day. Leverage will also have the effect of magnifying any differences in the Fund’s correlation or inverse correlation with the Index and may increase the volatility of the Fund.
Daily Index Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bull Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of correlation with the Index and therefore achieve its daily leveraged investment objective. The Bull Fund’s exposure to the Index is impacted by the Index’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bull Fund will be perfectly exposed to the Index at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bull Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to the Index increases on days when the Index is volatile near the close of the trading day.
Daily Inverse Index Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bear Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of inverse correlation with the Index and therefore achieve its daily inverse leveraged investment objective. The Bear Fund’s exposure to the Index is impacted by the Index’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bear Fund will be perfectly exposed to the Index at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bear Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to the Index increases on days when the Index is volatile near the close of the trading day.
U.S. Government Securities Risk – A security backed by the U.S. Treasury or the full faith and credit of the United States is guaranteed only as to the timely payment of interest and principal when held to maturity. The market prices for such securities are not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
Additional risks of each Fund include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Market Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Other Investment Companies (including ETFs Risk), Cash Transaction Risk, Passive Investment and Index Performance Risk and for the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares, Shorting or Inverse Risk. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of a Fund.
ALPS Distributors, Inc.
This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
