Grains

Grain prices this morning are mixed with Dec corn -0.25 (-0.07%), Jan soybeans +1.50 (+0.15%), and Dec wheat -0.25 (-0.06%). Grains on Monday closed lower with Jan soybeans at a 1-month low: Dec corn -1.25 (-0.36%), Jan soybeans -12.75 (-1.29%), Dec wheat -7.25 (-1.68%). Bearish factors included (1) a stronger dollar, and (2) weather forecasts for dry conditions over the rest of this week in the central U.S., which should allow farmers to finish the fall harvest. Another negative for wheat is increased wheat exports from Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter, as Russia wheat exports from Jul 1-Nov 8 are up +20% y/y at 13.5 MMT. Dec corn fell to a 2-month nearest-futures low Thursday after the USDA raised its U.S. 2017/18 corn production estimate to 14.578 bln bu, higher than expectations of 14.327 bln bu, as they raised their yield estimate to a record 175.4 bu per acre. The USDA also raised its U.S. 2017/18 corn ending stocks estimate to a record 2.487 bln bu, higher than expectations of 2.361 bln bu, and raised its global 2017/18 ending stocks estimate to 203.9 MMT, higher than expectations of no change at 201 MMT. Strong Chinese soybean demand is bullish for soybean prices as China Sep soybean imports rose +12.6 % to 8.11 MMT, a record high from the month of Sep. Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans is robust as China Jan-Sep China soybean imports of U.S. soybeans are up +14.8% y/y to 20.679 MMT. Monday's Crop Progress report showed 83% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Nov 12, -8 points below the 5-year average of 91%. 93% of the U.S. soybean crop has been harvested as of Nov 12, just below the 5-year average of 95%.