AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Wheat

Wheat futures are trading 4 1/2 to 5 1/4 cents in the green on Friday. MPLS is the leader as concerns are rising about drier weather in the North. Trade reports are estimating 20% of HRW wheat in TX has been harvested, with OK at 3%. Total exports are 2.7 MMT shy of the 16/17 USDA export estimate, with just two reporting weeks left in the MY. Keep in mind that official Census exports typically run higher than the weekly FAS totals. Total commitments for wheat exports are 37.7% ahead of last year, and 101% of the USDA export projection. Last year they were 106% of that number, with the average at 104%. Japan purchased 79,930 MT of US wheat in their weekly tender on Thursday.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.35 3/4, up 5 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.35 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $5.67 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents

Wheat

Wheat futures are mixed this morning after settling mixed on Thursday. Chicago is fractionally lower, with KC a penny higher to lower and MPLS 1 to 2 cents higher. Both CBT and KC were a penny to 2 cents lower yesterday. MPLS was the firmest, fractionally to 2 cents higher in most contracts. All wheat exports were well above last year and 9% larger than a week ago at 733,589 MT. Total exports are 2.7 MMT shy of the 16/17 USDA export estimate, with just two reporting weeks left in the MY. Keep in mind that official Census exports typically run higher than the weekly FAS totals. Total commitments for wheat exports are 37.7% ahead of last year, and 101% of the USDA export projection. Last year they were 106% of that number, with the average at 104%. Russia’s SovEcon analytical group increased the country’s wheat production estimate to 63 MMT, an increase of 500,000 MT.

Wheat

Wheat futures settled mixed on the day. Both CBT and KC were a penny to 2 cents lower. MPLS was the firmest, fractionally to 2 cents higher in most contracts. Old crop US wheat export sales beat the top end of expectations at 201,851 MT, as they were down 18.5% wk/wk but clearly outperformed last year’s net reductions. New crop sales were at 342,913 MT, just 3.3% lower than a year ago and 12.8% behind last week. All wheat exports were well above last year and 9% larger than a week ago at 733,589 MT. Total exports are 2.7 MMT shy of the 16/17 USDA export estimate, with just two reporting weeks left in the MY. Russia’s SovEcon analytical group increased the country’s wheat production estimate to 63 MMT, an increase of 500,000 MT.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.30 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.31 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.62 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently mixed in the nearby contracts on Thursday. CBT is mostly fractionally lower, with KC marginally to a penny higher. MPLS is the firmest, up 2-3 cents. Old crop US wheat export sales beat the top end of expectations at 201,851 MT, as they were down 18.5% wk/wk but clearly outperformed last year’s net reductions. New crop sales were at 342,913 MT, just 3.3% lower than a year ago and 12.8% behind last week. Russia’s SovEcon analytical group increased the country’s wheat production estimate to 63 MMT, an increase of 500,000 MT.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.32, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.33 3/4, up 1 cent,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $5.63 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents

Wheat

Wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents higher this morning. They were 2 1/4 to 6 3/4 cents in the green in nearby July at settle on Wednesday. Most contracts are fractionally mixed in the back months. Winter wheat conditions may be 23 points lower than last year by using the Brugler 500 index, but are still 23 points higher than the 5 year average and 20 points above the 10 year average. Correlations between mid-May crop ratings and final US average yield are still weak. SRW 16/17 exports from the EU were at 21.82 MMT through May 23, down 20.88% from that time frame last year. Reuters shows a 200,000 to 800,000 MT range of estimates for USDA weekly wheat export sales. Sales last week totaled 641,000 MT, up 296,000 MT from last year’s 345,000 MT.


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