AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Soybeans

Soybean futures finished the day 2 3/4 to 3 1/2 cents lower on most contracts. Soymeal futures rose 50 cents and soy oil was down 26 points. The Reuters poll of analysts have estimated on the low side of the USDA Planting Intention numbers 4 times in the last 12 years, by an average of 2.2%. On the other hand, they have guessed high 8 times, averaging 1.98% above the USDA projection. The Weekly Export sales report will be released at 7:30 tomorrow morning. Analysts are expecting 350,000-550,000 MT in old crop soybean sales with 100,000-300,000 MT in new crop sales. Soy meal sales are estimated at 100,000-300,000 MT and 0-100,000 MT respectively and Oil is estimated at 0-30,000 MT for 2016/17. Since 2000, the USDA March Planting intentions report has been higher than the actual plantings 10 years, with 7 of those years being lower than the final planted acreage figure.

May 17 Soybeans settled at $9.69, down 3 cents,

Jul 17 Soybeans settled at $9.79 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans settled at $9.81 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans settled at $9.73 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 17 Soybean Meal settled at $315.80, up $0.50,

May 17 Soybean Oil settled at $32.21, down $0.26

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 1/4 cents lower on most contracts. Soymeal futures are down a dime and soy oil is 16 points lower. Reuters poll of analysts have estimated on the low side of the USDA Planting Intention numbers 4 times in the last 12 years, by an average of 2.2%. On the other hand, they have guessed high 8 times, averaging 1.98% above the USDA projection. The Weekly Export sales report will be released at 7:30 tomorrow morning. Since 2000, the USDA March Planting intentions report has been higher than the actual plantings 10 years, with 7 of those years being lower than the final planted acreage figure.

May 17 Soybeans are at $9.68 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.79 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.81 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.74 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 17 Soybean Meal is at $315.20, down $0.10,

May 17 Soybean Oil is at $32.31, down $0.16

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 1 to 4 cents higher after they were fractionally higher on Tuesday, as May 17 was up 1/2 cent. Soymeal futures were mostly steady and soy oil was up around 18 points. The national average cash price for soybeans was $8.95 1/4 on Monday evening, according to DTN, the lowest since October 14. The national average basis is -76 cents, 21 cents weaker than the same day last year. The earliest planting dates for soybeans to qualify for crop insurance are April 15, extending to May 5 in ND and CO. A USDA ag attach report estimates 17/18 Canadian oilseed production up 1.05% from last year at 25.265 MMT. Crush is projected 4.53% lower, at 10.523 MMT.

Soybeans

Soybean futures were marginally higher on Tuesday, as May 17 was up 1/2 cent. Soymeal futures were mostly steady and soy oil was up around 18 points. The national average cash price for soybeans was $8.95 1/4 on Monday evening, according to DTN, the lowest since October 14. The national average basis is -76 cents, 21 cents weaker than the same day last year. Oklahoma canola condition ratings are 41% gd/ex this week, down from 63% last year. The state report showed 29% blooming, vs. 21% the same week last year. The earliest planting dates for soybeans to qualify for crop insurance are April 15, extending to May 5 in ND and CO. The USDA attache report estimates 17/18 Canadian oilseed production up 1.05% from last year at 25.265 MMT. Crush is projected 4.53% lower, at 10.523 MMT.

May 17 Soybeans settled at $9.72, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 17 Soybeans settled at $9.82 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Aug 17 Soybeans settled at $9.84 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Sep 17 Soybeans settled at $9.77, up 1/2 cent,

May 17 Soybean Meal settled at $315.30, unch,

May 17 Soybean Oil settled at $32.47, up $0.18

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently steady to fractionally higher. Soymeal futures are up a dime and soy oil is 17 points higher. The national average cash price for soybeans was $8.95 1/4 on Monday evening, according to DTN, the lowest since October 14. The national average basis is at -76 cents, 21 cents weaker than the same day last year. Oklahoma canola conditions are 41% g/e down from 63% last year, with 29% blooming, vs. 21% the same week last year. The earliest planting dates for soybeans to qualify for crop insurance are April 15, extending to May 5 in ND and CO. The USDA attache report estimates 17/18 Canadian oilseed production up 1.05% from last year at 25.265 MMT. Crush is projected 4.53% lower, at 10.523 MMT.

May 17 Soybeans are at $9.71 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.82, up 1/4 cent,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.83 3/4, unch ,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.76, down 1/2 cent,

May 17 Soybean Meal is at $315.40, up $0.10,

May 17 Soybean Oil is at $32.46, up $0.17


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