AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Soybeans

Soybean futures are posting losses of 6 3/4 to 9 cents in the front months at midday. July 17 meal is down $2.10, with soy oil 28 cents lower. in the nearby month. Thoughts of possible higher soybean acreage is weighting on prices. The continuous chart shows the front month soybeans are at a 13 month low. Last night’s national average cash price was $8.72 according to DTN, $1.44 1/2 lower than the same time last year. This week’s Canadian canola crush was estimated at 159,098 MT, 6.2% larger than the previous week. Soybean export commitments are now 22% larger than last year, and are 104% of the USDA projected export total. Last year was just 93%, with the 5-year average running 98% for this date.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.30 1/2, down 9 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.33 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.31 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.32 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $302.60, down $2.10

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $31.76, down $0.28

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 2 to 3 cents below yesterday’s close. They posted losses of 6 3/4 to 9 cents on Thursday, as July closed at a 13 month low. July 17 meal was $1.70 lower, with soy oil down 24 points in the nearby month. Weekly export shipments outperformed last year by 178.6%, but were just under the previous week at 334,682 MT. Soybean export commitments are now 22% larger than last year, and are 104% of the USDA projected export total. Last year was just 93%, with the 5-year average running 98% for this date. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimates 2016/17 soybean production at 58 MMT, vs. USDA at 57MMT and BAGE at 57.5 MMT. BAGE says the Argentine soybean harvest is 79.6% complete, up 4.9% over last week.

Soybeans

Soybean futures posted losses of 6 3/4 to 9 cents on Thursday, as July closed at a 13 month low. July 17 meal was $1.70 lower, with soy oil down 24 points in the nearby month. Weekly soybean export sales of old crop were 33.1% larger that last week at 472,741 MT, and they were 3.5% above the same time last year. New crop sales, hurt by the large South American crop, were just 6,000 MT. Outstanding new crop sales are just 80.8% of last year’s total to this point. Exports outperformed last year by 178.6%, but were just under the previous week at 334,682 MT. Total soy meal sales ran 159,894 MT, 8% behind last week and 14.6% lower than the same week a year ago. Meal exports were 149,201MT. Soy oil sales were reported at 9,993 MT for 2016/17, just 67% of last week’s sales and well lower than last year. Exports for soy oil came in at 4,573 MT, well short of last week. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimates 2016/17 soybean production at 58 MMT, vs. USDA at 57MMT and BAGE at 57.5 MMT. BAGE says the Argentine soybean harvest is 79.6% complete, up 4.9% over last week.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.39 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.41 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.38 3/4, down 9 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.46 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $304.70, down $1.70,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $32.04, down $0.24

Soybeans

Soybean futures are showing losses of 6 to 6 3/4 cents in the front months on Thursday. July 17 meal is $1.20 lower, with soy oil down 10 points in the nearby month. Weekly soybean export sales of old crop were 33.1% larger that last week at 472,741 MT, and they were 3.5% above the same time last year. New crop sales, hurt by the large South American crop, were just 6,000 MT. Outstanding new crop sales are just 80.8% of last year’s total to this point. Total soy meal sales ran 159,894 MT, 8% behind last week and 14.6% lower than the same week a year ago. Soy oil sales were reported at 9,993 MT for 2016/17, just 67% of last week’s sales and well lower than last year. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimates 2016/17 soybean production at 58 MMT, vs. USDA at 57MMT and BAGE at 57.5 MMT. BAGE says the Argentine soybean harvest is 79.6% complete, up 4.9% over last week.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.42, down 6 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.44 1/4, down 6 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.41 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.41 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $305.20, down $1.20

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $32.18, down $0.10

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 1 to 3 cents higher after closing unchanged in the front months on Wednesday. July 17 meal was up 10 cents, with soy oil down 6 cents in the front month. Forecasts of rain over the next five days could result in planting delays for some producers in already soaked regions. The national soybean cash price as reported by DTN was $8.8061 on Tuesday night, $1.08 lower than a year ago. That leaves a national basis of -67 3/4 cents, just 2 1/4 cents stronger than last year. Basis has not firmed as much as would usually be seen due to larger carryover stocks and the wall of oncoming supplies from South America. Reuters finds a 150,000 to 650,000 MT spread for soybean export sales in the USDA report tomorrow. Results last week totaled .397 MMT, down .210 MMT from last year’s .607 MMT.


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