AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 8 3/4 to 9 3/4 cents lower on Thursday, pressured by the higher acreage announced this morning. March 17 soy meal futures are down $3.40 and March 17 bean oil is 38 cents in the red. Soybean acreage for 2017 was projected by the USDA this morning at 88 ma. If accurate, that would be a 5.5% larger area than in 2016. Estimated average soybean price is projected to rise 10 cents to $9.60 for 2017/18 by the USDA Chief Economist. Actual WASDE estimates won’t begin until May for new crop. An estimate from AgroConsult for soybean production in Brazil is 107.8 MMT and Argentina is 54 MMT. Those are 3.8 MMT and 1.5 MMT respectively above the recent USDA estimate. Brazilian exports are pegged at 61.1 MMT by the group, vs. 59.5 MMT by the USDA.

Mar 17 Soybeans are at $10.14, down 8 3/4 cents,

May 17 Soybeans are at $10.24 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $10.33 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $10.33, down 9 1/4 cents,

Mar 17 Soybean Meal is at $331.60, down $3.40,

Mar 17 Soybean Oil is at $32.34, down $0.38

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents lower this morning. They settled yesterday mainly 3 1/2 cents lower in the front month yesterday, with some deferred contracts hanging steady or only fractionally lower. March 17 soy meal futures were down $2.40, and March 17 bean oil was 5 points lower. A Bloomberg survey shows trader estimates for US soybean acreage for 2017 at 88.3 million acres (MA), up 4.9 MA from last year. Weekly export sales data are delayed due to the short week, but will be released on Friday morning. DTN’s national average cash soybean price was at $9.5275 last night. That leaves the national basis at -73.50 cents to March17 futures, 26 cents weaker than the same time last year. Rain in Mato Grosso, Brazil is delaying soybean harvest as well as planting of the next crop. Some producers are reporting yield losses as beans swell or get moldy. Muddy roads are also limiting truck traffic to the Amazon ports.

Soybeans

Soybean futures settled mainly 3 1/2 cents lower in the front month, with some deferred contracts hanging steady or only fractionally lower. March 17 soy meal futures were down $2.40, and March 17 bean oil was 5 points lower. A Bloomberg survey estimates US soybean acreage for 2017 at 88.3 million acres (MA), up 4.9 MA from last year. Weekly export sales data are delayed due to the short week, but will be released on Friday morning. DTN’s national average cash soybean price was at $9.5275 last night. That leaves the national basis at -73.50 cents to March17 futures, 26 cents weaker than the same time last year. Rain in Mato Grosso, Brazil is delaying soybean harvest as well as planting of the next crop.

Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.22 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 17 Soybeans settled at $10.33 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybeans settled at $10.43, down 3 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans settled at $10.42 1/4, down 3 cents,

Mar 17 Soybean Meal settled at $335.00, down $2.40,

Mar 17 Soybean Oil settled at $32.72, up $0.05

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently lower in most contacts. March 17 soy meal futures are down 90 cents, and March 17 bean oil is by 4 points lower. US soybean acreage for 2017 is estimated at 88.3 million acres (ma), up 4.9 ma from last year, according to a Bloomberg survey. Export sales are delayed due to the short week, and will be released on Friday morning. DTN’s national cash average soybean price was at $9.5275 last night. That leaves the national basis at -73.50 cents, 26 cents weaker than the same time last year.

Mar 17 Soybeans are at $10.24 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 17 Soybeans are at $10.35, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $10.44 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $10.43 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 17 Soybean Meal is at $336.50, down $0.90,

Mar 17 Soybean Oil is at $32.63, down $0.04

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 2 to 3 cents higher after closing 6 cents lower on Tuesday. March 17 soy meal futures lost $2.20, and March 17 bean oil lost 22 points. US Soybean export inspections for the week of 2/16 were 39.55 million bushels (mbu), which was 6.4% lower than last week, and 43.5% below the same week last year. Through February 16, total inspections for this year are 193.19 mbu larger than at the same point last year. SAFRAS estimates that 24.8% of Brazilian soybeans have been harvested as of February 17, ahead of the annual average of 17.1%. They also estimate Mato Grosso at 52% complete, but only 18% in Parana.


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