AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures traded steady to fractionally higher today. Estimates for the USDA weekly Export Sales report are running 900,000-1,200,000 MT for old crop corn. New crop is projected to be in the range of 100,000-300,000 MT. US FOB export prices are competitive with South American origins after this price break. The weekly EIA report had daily ethanol production up 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) from last week @ 1.054 million bpd. That is the highest daily production since the first week in February. Weekly ethanol stocks rose 662,000 barrels to 23.257 million barrels. The USDA Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports will be released on Friday, with a Reuters poll putting the expected stocks number at 8.53 billion bushels. The USDA survey has overestimated planting acreage 9 times since 2000, when comparing to the actual final acre number. It has been too low the other 8 years.

May 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 17 Corn settled at $3.66, up 1/2 cent,

Sep 17 Corn settled at $3.73 1/4, unch,

Dec 17 Corn settled at $3.82, up 1/4 cent

Corn

Corn futures are fractionally to a penny lower on Wednesday. The weekly EIA report had daily ethanol production up 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) from last week @ 1.054 million bpd. That is the highest daily production since the first week in February. Weekly ethanol stocks rose 662,000 barrels to 23.257 million barrels. The USDA Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports will be released on Friday. In the past 12 years the Reuters poll analysts have overestimated planting intentions for corn 6 times and underestimated the same. On average they overstated plantings by 1.24% and understated by 1.60%. They have also guessed high 5 of the 12 years for March 1 corn stocks by an average of 2.03%, and were low 7 times by 1.90%.

May 17 Corn is at $3.57 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.65 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.72 1/2, down 3/4 cent

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.80 3/4, down 1 cent

Corn

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. They closed 1-2 cents higher in most contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. DTN has the national cash corn price at $3.17, the lowest in 2017. That puts the national average basis at -38 3/4 cents, which is 11 1/2 cents weaker than the same time a year ago. In the past 12 years the Reuters poll analysts have overestimated planting intentions for corn 6 times and underestimated the same. On average they overstated plantings by 1.24% and understated by 1.60%. They have also guessed high 5 of the 12 years for March 1 corn stocks by an average of 2.03%, and were low 7 times by 1.90%. Another low pathogenic strain of the bird flu was found on a Georgia farm, causing 18,000 birds to be culled. The South African Crop Estimates Committee projects the 2017 corn crop up 84% from the previous drought afflicted crop, at 14.3 MMT.

Corn

Corn futures closed 1-2 cents higher in most contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. DTN has the national cash corn price at $3.17, the lowest in 2017. That puts the national average basis at -38 3/4 cents, which is 11 1/2 cents weaker than the same time a year ago. In the past 12 years the Reuters poll analysts have overestimated planting intentions for corn 6 times and underestimated the same. On average they overstated plantings by 1.24% and understated by 1.60%. They have also guessed high 5 of the 12 years for March 1 corn stocks by an average of 2.03%, and were low 7 times by 1.90%. Another low pathogenic strain of the bird flu was found on a Georgia farm, causing 18,000 birds to be culled. The South African Crop Estimates Committee projects the 2017 corn crop up 84% from last year at 14.3 MMT.

May 17 Corn settled at $3.57 3/4, up 2 cents,

Jul 17 Corn settled at $3.65 1/2, up 2 cents,

Sep 17 Corn settled at $3.73 1/4, up 2 cents

Dec 17 Corn settled at $3.81 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents

Corn

Corn futures are trading mostly 1 1/4 to 1 3/4 cents higher on Tuesday. TX corn planting is 45% complete, with 14% already emerged. KS is at 2%, LA is 80%, AR is 19%, and MS is at 30% complete. DTN has the national cash corn price at $3.17, the lowest in 2017. That puts the national average basis at -38 3/4 cents, which is 11 1/2 cents weaker than the same time a year ago. Another low pathogenic strain of the bird flu was found on a Georgia farm, causing 18,000 birds to be culled. The South African Crop Estimates Committee projects the 2017 corn crop up 84% from last year at 14.3 MMT.

May 17 Corn is at $3.57 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.65 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.73, up 1 3/4 cents

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.81 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents


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